Is the Premier League title race for the 2024/25 season down to just two teams after only 11 rounds? League leaders Liverpool had a dream weekend with a 3-0 victory over Aston Villa, while Man City lost to Brighton, and Arsenal drew 1-1 with Chelsea.
Currently, Liverpool lead Man City by 5 points, with the rest of the table trailing by 9 or more points. Opta’s “supercomputer” predicts that Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal have just a 3.5% chance of winning the title, while Chelsea have 0.2%, and any other team has almost no chance.
So, can Arsenal be ruled out of the title race? Arsenal fans had hoped this would be their season after chasing Man City closely in the past two title races. With Man City struggling, having lost four games in a row in all competitions, this might be Arsenal’s ideal opportunity.
However, Liverpool have been performing better than anyone could have imagined under new manager Arne Slot, having accumulated 28 points out of a possible 33. Arsenal, meanwhile, are now 9 points behind the leaders for the first time since the end of the 2022/23 season when they finished second, 24 points behind Man City.
Arsenal fans were disappointed when the final whistle blew at Stamford Bridge. Captain Ødegaard returned to the Premier League after injury and provided an assist for Gabriel Martinelli’s opening goal, but it wasn’t enough for a win. Expert Paul Merson said on Sky Sports, “Mikel Arteta must know that they’ve earned only 6 points instead of 12. I think Arsenal need to find a way to close the 9-point gap now. If it goes up to 12 points by the end of December, it’s game over.”
Can Arsenal still do it? Well, history is not on their side. No team has ever won the Premier League after being 9 points (or more) behind the leaders after 11 rounds. Man City did it in the 2013/14 season, but at that point, the team leading the table, Arsenal, had played 12 games.
Speaking about their rivals, Arteta said Arsenal must “win, win, win, win, and win more, because these guys keep winning.” If they win all remaining games, they would finish with 100 points, while Liverpool’s current form could see them reach 97 points.
Another question is: Can Liverpool not win the title? Liverpool are only the sixth team in Premier League history to lead by 5 points after 11 games. The first five teams all went on to win the title, including Liverpool in 2019/20.
There were many doubts about how Liverpool would perform after legendary manager Jurgen Klopp left, but under Slot, they are flying high. Midfielder Alexis Mac Allister admitted, “Before the season started, no one considered us as title contenders, but now it looks like we are,” after their 2-0 win against Villa.
Opta gives Liverpool a 58.3% chance of winning the title, up from just 5.1% before the season started. Liverpool’s strength lies in their goal-scoring ability, with a massive goal difference compared to their competitors. They are not afraid of conceding, as they can score more goals.
Liverpool will face injury problems like any other team, or reach a stage where they must stretch themselves in both the Premier League and the Champions League, and their competitors will begin to catch up. Therefore, this is just the start of the title race, but Liverpool’s firepower is their biggest advantage.
Former midfielder Jamie Redknapp commented on Sky Sports: “Arne Slot made a big win last weekend. They need to keep that momentum going. Right now, Liverpool have the advantage. Liverpool will face Man City in a few weeks.” That match will take place on Sunday, December 1st, at Anfield.
What about Man City’s hopes? Pep Guardiola has lost four consecutive games in all competitions for the first time in his highly decorated career. The reigning champions are fighting for a fifth consecutive Premier League title, but Opta gives them just a 38% chance, down from 82% before the 2024/25 season.
“Maybe after 7 years and 6 Premier League titles, Man City will let another team win,” Guardiola said. However, Man City is known for their strong track record, having lost only 4 Premier League games after Christmas in the last three seasons. They have also overcome greater obstacles than a 5-point deficit after 11 games. In fact, in all four seasons they won the title consecutively, they were at least 6 points behind at some point, including when they were 8 points behind Arsenal in April 2023.